A scientist claims that media reports about global climate change are often unreliable. Explain why scientists find it difficult to make accurate predictions about global climate change, and suggest one reason why media reports about global climate change may be biased.

AQA GCSE Chemistry (8462) — 4.9.2 Carbon dioxide and methane as greenhouse gases · Explain · 4 marks · View as Markdown

Written & reviewed by James Millett — Biology (Imperial College London), PGCE Science (University of Cambridge).

Model answer (4 marks)

Scientists find it difficult to make accurate predictions about global climate change because the climate system is extremely complex, involving interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, biosphere and human activities. The models used to predict future climate are necessarily simplified and can only include a limited number of processes and variables, so they do not capture every detail of the real system. Consequently, predictions are often based on a range of scenarios and contain a high degree of uncertainty, leading to speculation and opinions rather than definitive conclusions.

Media reports may be biased because they often present only part of the evidence. Journalists may focus on sensational or politically convenient aspects of the science, or be influenced by financial or ideological interests, which can skew the information presented to the public.

Examiner tips

  • Use the phrase "very complex system" and mention "simplified models" to hit the first two points. Show that uncertainty leads to speculation to cover the third point. Give a clear example of bias (political or financial) for the fourth point.
  • Be concise – 4 marks, so keep each point short but complete.
  • Use UK spelling (e.g. ‘behaviour’ if needed).

Common mistakes

  • Writing that models are 100% accurate or that predictions are definitive. Failing to mention that models are simplified or that only part of the evidence is used. Giving a vague or unrelated reason for media bias, such as general mistrust of science.

Mark scheme (4 marks)

  1. Global climate change involves a very complex system (that is difficult to model)
  2. Models used are simplified / only part of the evidence is used
  3. This leads to speculation and opinions rather than definitive conclusions
  4. Media reports may only present part of the evidence / may be biased toward a particular viewpoint (e.g. political or financial interests)

Key terms in this question

global climate change · biased

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